Political And Ideological Fallout

For months now, we have all seen the constant debate over the situation between turkey and its desire to in one fashion or another increase its influence in the only free part of Kurdistan, (KRG Administered N. Iraq) in whatever fashion it can. The obvious course of action is military intervention, and the less obvious courses are its steps in the political arena; namely federal structure of Southern (Iraqi) Kurdistan, Kirkuk, involvement of Kurdish politicians based in Baghdad and domestic politics within Northern (E. Turkey) Kurdistan population. It has also pushed for Kurds to tone down there aspirations, along with cornering Kurds into leaving their security and national interests solely dependent on Turkey.

It's other and usually the most far-reaching is its ideological push, to change Kurdish mentality; fracturing it once again and then extending its own ideology (namely the hypocritical style of Fethullah Gulen and isolating DTP) across Kurdistan’s territories.

First: Military
Military steps taken have its usual course and its miserable failure for both sides as we have seen in history. The cost in property, economics and the highest price of course is the loss of human life and the stalling of forward progression. Usually this affects more the country that is being invaded in terms of economic loss, yet it is the country that is being invaded that almost always wins militarily as history has shown. In terms of Kurds, we have seen our share bloodshed, and truly believe that we, because of all that bloodshed, are now peaceful seeking people, but at the same time insist Universal Human Rights and Right to Self-Determination Charters be implemented as these are already adopted by the countries which Kurds currently reside in. The unfortunate part is that whenever there is a war in Kurdistan, whatever military gains are made by Kurds, are lost soon after, when the "opposite" side leaves and we always turn to civil war, as we saw in 90's in Southern (N. Iraq) Kurdistan. The recent incursion by Turkish Military Forces into Southern (Iraqi) Kurdistan, seemed to target KRG (Kurdistan Regional Government) infrastructure, with the Iraqi Red Crescent Society reporting four civilian bridges being destroyed (link) , not known to be used by PKK forces. A harsh mountainous winter along with PKK forces heavily dug in terrain led to a quick and pre-mature withdrawal by Turkish forces.

Second:
National and Political Interests Fallouts
It is interesting that none of us even see today, how Kurds are putting so much of their national interests, particularly economic and political dependence on Turkey? How do you gain national sovereignty and independence? Almost entirely on economical and international legitimacy. When KRG was awarded the 4 billion dollars soon after the outset of the war, Kurds were begging them to make sure to award as many contracts as they could to western companies so they could have a vested interest in Kurdistan, so when this situation does arise, we are not lobbying by ourselves but have western companies at the same time lobbying on our behalf, as the rest of the world does. Of course as usual, this advice was not heeded, or at least not nearly enough. Now with another 6.4 billion settled for the KRG by the central Iraqi government, that chance has again come into play. It would be wise for the KRG to increase their vested interest abroad thrice fold. The Baker-Hamilton report backed by Turkey and Saudi Arabia is now being pushed and implemented after an initial rebuke by Kurdish leaders. With all these threats by Turkey, they have in essence through this conflict been successful in delaying the Kirkuk referendum, and even toning down the stance by Kurds on federalism. What is the future of Kurdistan without out these two firmly in the hands of Kurds? Instead of moving on in the "expansion and forward" policy which Kurds have tried to embark on these past 4 years, they have once again pushed them back into the old mentality of "control, stability and hunker down" policy which has been carried out for the past 20 years by Southern Kurdistan. It is almost reminiscent of 1975 in which negotiations with Saddam collapsed because of Kirkuk, have the Kurds been pushed back once again? Let us hope not. It is also interesting to note, after the recent military debacle, (with criticism of the of the military by the usual pro-military MHP and CHP Turkish parties) Turkey has decided to bypass the KRG, and target Kurdish-based Baghdad officials, namely that of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, keeping its long-failed policy of bypassing or out rightly ignoring the real factor of/in Kurdish politics, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) headed by President of KRG Massoud Barzani.

Third: Ideological Push
History has taught us that what pushes any country forward and in terms of long term success/failure is its ideology and the strength and consistence with this. Before this recent conflict, many Kurds believed in sheltering, if not at the very least, ignoring pkk in southern Kurdistan. After all, KDP/PUK used this same strategy throughout the 70's and 80's in Iran at a much more extensive way and higher expense of the Kurds in Iran. It seems thou now, and even among the Diaspora that Kurds now think of the Northern struggle as an "annoyance" or even detriment against the "south" or Kurdistan. Has this been Turkey's biggest success in the long term? The hard work by many Kurds in both Northern (Turkey) Kurdistan and Southern (Iraqi) Kurdistan to mend fences between the two and finally bring them together as there faiths, believe it or not, for all the ignorant, are much intertwined. It is evident in this recent conflict, that without the success or at least peaceful resolution of the Kurdish situation in Northern Kurdistan, Southern Kurdistan will never or very hard pressed, ever be truly successful or even worth mentioning with strength on the international or regional stage. The future seems to be that Turkey, (with recent reports of mass funding to Islamic tied groups, and a reported 80 million to try to take a municipality , Diyarbakir,) will push Southern (Iraqi) Kurdistan weakness, with politicized Islam (don’t take that as an anti-Islam statement, it is not, it is just what they will try). Gulen's movement, which I know many people here are unaware of, has basically taken over turkey. So the push by Kurds and its ideology of a distinct group, whatever aspiration it will hold, will independently clash with political Islam particularly that of Fethullah Gulen.

So the question I ask you all, who won this round?
Educate yourself; it is our only and last tool.